EPA to Designate PFAS as Hazardous Substances; Impact to Farms likely to be Widespread Farm Bill: Farmers are in need; Congress needs to act now!COMMUNICATION: Support AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act!

Grassroots Advocacy Be a Successful Advocate Sign up for Action Alerts 118th Congress Briefing Booklet

#StillFarming

Ag Innovation Challenge

Partners in Advocacy Leadership

Farm Dog of the Year

Farm State of Mind

County Activities of Excellence

Safety & Health Homepage Think F.A.S.T

Veteran Farmer Award of Excellence

PROGRAMS

Young Farmers & Ranchers

Promotion & Education

Women’s Leadership

LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT

Farm Bureau University

ISSUES

Farm Bill Trade Sustainability Regulatory Reform Rural Broadband Labor VIEW ALL

Low Inventory Leads to Uncertainty in Cattle Markets

TOPICS

Cattle Livestock

Bernt Nelson

Economist

Chad Smith

Associate News Service Editor, NAFB

photo credit: Colorado Farm Bureau, Used with Permission

Bernt Nelson

Economist

Chad Smith

Associate News Service Editor, NAFB

With U.S. cattle inventory at the lowest level in more than seven decades, farmers and ranchers are facing uncertainty about the future. Chad Smith has more on what market conditions can tell us.

Smith: A pair of recent market reports paint a picture of cattle on feed supplies remaining steady even as cash cattle prices moved higher. Bernt Nelson, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, says the Cattle on Feed report is a good indicator of what’s coming in the market.

Nelson: A lot of that has to do with kind of what's been happening with our cattle on feed numbers. And I think it's important for individuals to remember, farmers to remember that our cattle on feed numbers currently are not really bullish, but there are some things happening in there that can kind of lead people down another direction.

Smith: Nelson says that despite higher cattle supplies, overall market conditions mean that cash prices aren’t necessarily going down.

Nelson: Overall, cattle on feed came in at 11.6 million head. Now this is pretty close to where things were at this point last year. Placements were down around two percent. Marketings were up around two percent. There are a lot of fed cattle on the market right now. There's also good packing margin occurring right now. Having a lot of those cattle available, typically when we think of higher supplies, we think of lower cash prices, but having those packer margins a little bit higher right now has allowed them to kind of bid for that.

Smith: Nelson says that these continually high retail prices could eventually lead to consumers shifting demand away from cattle to other protein options like chicken and pork.

Nelson: Up to this point, since that July time frame, and we've seen record highs made in a total of six of the last seven months of this year entirely. So, going back even a little bit further behind that [in] July and so, beef is still going up. Right now, I don't think the overall choice in the beef cutout can go a whole lot higher before we start seeing some consumer demand shift away. You know, our consumers are getting tired. The inflation story has gone on for quite a while and these higher prices are exhausting.

Smith: For more information, go to fb.org/marketintel. Chad Smith, Washington.

What We're Saying

Cattle on Feed Remains Elevated, Despite Low Cattle Inventory

Oct 25, 2024

Beef Prices Soar to Record Highs, Yet Farmers Struggle to Reap the Benefits

Aug 30, 2024

Low Cattle Inventory Drives Continued High Beef Prices

Aug 28, 2024

Livestock Market Update for The Second Half of 2024

Aug 1, 2024

Top Issues

Farm Bill Trade Sustainability Regulatory Reform Rural Broadband Labor

VIEW ALL